Chase Race No. 1: Chicagoland Speedway a Good Barometer for Who Might Be Champion

Number one seed Brad Keselowski won Chicago in 2012 (Photo: Google Images)

After 26 regular season races, it is time for Nascar's top 16 drivers to battle it out for the 2014 Sprint Cup title. The first stop on the ten race stretch that will decide the next champion is the Chicagoland Speedway this Sunday and, the last three seasons at least, this race has proven to be a good indicator of which drivers will be serious title contenders.

When last season's Geico 400 was completed, Matt Kenseth found himself in victory lane after edging out Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Kyle Busch for the victory. Kenseth was also the number one seed entering last year's chase and it appeared that his No. 20 team had only gotten more dominant, as this was their sixth win of the season. Kenseth would go on to win the next race at New Hampshire, but he would come up just short of Jimmie Johnson in the championship standings, finishing second overall after a bad race in Phoenix. But despite this, in my opinion at least, with seven wins, 20 top-ten finishes and an average finish of twelfth, last year truly was Kenseth's championship to lose.

The year before, Brad Keselowski won in the "Windy City," for his fourth win of the season. This Chase would also prove to be a battle between Keselowski and Johnson and Keselowski made no bones about the fact he was out to take the No. 48 team down a peg or two. Both drivers had five wins going into the finale, Johnson had 24 top-tens to Keselowski's 23 and both drivers had an average finish between tenth and eleventh. It would come down to Homestead, a broken rear-end gear on Johnson's Chevrolet and a fifteenth place finish for Keselowski and when the checkered flag fell, "Bad Brad" was the 2012 Sprint Cup champion.

Tony Stewart with the 2011 Sprint Cup (Photo: Google Images)

In 2011, Tony Stewart famously said his team did not deserve a spot in the Chase because they were nowhere near ready to contend for a title. Well, Stewart's team would go on to qualify for the Chase and win the first race at Chicagoland. They would also go on to win four more Chase races (that's right. They won HALF of the Chase races), including the season finale at Homestead. It was that win that netted Stewart the 2011 title as well, as he was tied in points with Carl Edwards and the tiebreaker was number of wins. Stewart's No. 14 team might not have been ready before the Chase began, but they sure caught fire once the final ten races began.

So heading into this weekend's race at Chicago, knowing that the track has shown who will be strongest over the final ten weeks, look for Keselowski to win again in Illinois. He was won already this year at Las Vegas and Kentucky, two tracks very similar to Chicago. And, while it isn't all that similar to Chicago, his Penske Racing teammate Joey Logano won at Texas Motor Speedway earlier this year.

In addition to the two Penske cars, would also look for Hendrick Motorsports to be strong as well. Jeff Gordon won at Kansas and Michigan this year and, while they are bigger than Chicagoland Speedway, they have the same type of sweeping corners as Chicago. Dale Earnhardt, Jr is another driver who should also do well. He won at Chicago back in 2005 and he's already won three times this year. With this being crew chief Steve Letarte's last season with the No. 88 team, they want to send him off with a championship so that could be all the motivation they need to get their Chase off to a strong start. And Jimmie Johnson is Jimmie Johnson, six-time defending champ and 69 races. He's strong just about everywhere.


Kevin Harvick (L) and Rodney Childers have been a very
strong duo in 2014 (Photo: Google Images)

As far as any dark horses, while he might not really be a dark horse, look for Kevin Harvick to be a threat. He and crew chief Rodney Childers have already won twice this year as a new team and, save for a few slow pit stops and a lot of mechanical issues, with thirteen top-ten finishes they have been in contention almost every week. While everyone is focusing on drivers like Keselowski and Johnson, "Happy Harvick" might just sneak up into the top-five and show he's ready to land Stewart-Haas Racing its second Sprint Cup title.

Other unassuming drivers could be Greg Biffle and Ryan Newman. While they have not won yet this year, they have been quiet and consistent with both Newman and Biffle netting ten top-tens this year. Aric Almirola could also surprise some people. He managed to sneak into the top ten and finish tenth at Richmond last week, his sixth of the season.

While the Chase is only beginning this weekend at Chicagoland Speedway and there will still be nine races left to run once the dust clears Sunday night, this race will help separate the contenders from the pretenders. Two champions and a runner-up have won this race the last three seasons. Will that trend continue this weekend? If a Chase driver wins on Sunday, he might be someone to keep an eye on over the next several weeks.